LEADING CENTER-RIGHT ARGENTINE OPPOSITION LEADER MAURICIO MACRI ON KIRCHNER AND THE 2007 ELECTIONS

Reference ID 06BUENOSAIRES2215
Created 2006-09-28 21:09
Released 2011-02-21
Classification CONFIDENTIAL
Origin Embassy Buenos Aires


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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUENOS AIRES 002215SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA TOM SHANNON, JOHN MAISTO, AND CHARLES SHAPIRO NSC FOR DAN FISK TREASURY FOR DAS NANCY LEE USCINCSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL AR

SUBJECT: LEADING CENTER-RIGHT ARGENTINE OPPOSITION LEADER MAURICIO MACRI ON KIRCHNER AND THE 2007 ELECTIONS REF: BUENOS AIRES 01901 Classified By: CDA, a.i., Michael Matera, Reasons 1.4(b) and (d)

¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On September 26, Charge and Poloff met with leading center-right political leader Mauricio Macri and
longtime Macri associate and local businessman, Nicolas
Caputo. Macri voiced his criticisms of President Nestor
Kirchner's policies and spoke at length about next year's
national elections. Despite his strong criticisms of
Kirchner, Macri noted that the GOA's fiscal discipline was a
positive change compared to past governments, and he admitted
that the projected continued strength of the economy over the
next year meant that Kirchner would likely win reelection.
Although Macri felt it would be difficult to beat Kirchner in
2007, he was optimistic about the long-term prospects of his
Republican Proposal (PRO) political alliance. Macri said he
was still undecided on which office he would run for in the
2007 elections. Although he did not rule out an eventual
alliance with former Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna, he
felt that he and Lavagna had little in common. END SUMMARY.
¶2. (C) On September 26, Charge and Poloff met with leading
center-right political leader Mauricio Macri and longtime
Macri associate and local businessman, Nicolas Caputo. Macri
spoke at length about his views of President Nestor Kirchner
and next year's national elections. Macri was critical of
Kirchner's policies, particularly in the foreign and economic
policy areas. "Argentina is not getting the investment it
needs, especially in the energy sector. Kirchner thinks he
can go to New York, ring the bell at the Stock Exchange, and
tell investors 'we didn't fulfill our promises before, but
now you can trust us.' It will take a lot harder work than
that to bring investors back to Argentina. Kirchner is
constantly creating conflicts abroad, with our regional
neighbors, at Mar del Plata, but the Argentine people do not
realize how damaging this is because the government is very
good at controlling the media." 3. (C) Despite his strong criticisms of Kirchner, Macri noted that the GOA's fiscal discipline was a positive change compared to past governments, and he admitted that the
projected continued strength of the economy over the next
year meant that Kirchner would likely win reelection.
"Kirchner understands that money equals political power, so
he has put an emphasis on maintaining a surplus. For the
first time in recent memory, Argentina doesn't have to worry
about being able to pay its bills." Macri noted that
although surprises were always possible, particularly with
the crime issue, he did not foresee Kirchner having
difficulty wining reelection in 2007. 4. (C) Although Macri felt it would be difficult to beat Kirchner in 2007, he was optimistic about the long-term prospects of his Republican Proposal (PRO) political
alliance. He predicted that the economy would start to
decline in 2008. Macri said PRO was working to prepare its
leaders to assume office in 2011. "We are the first truly
pro-market, pro-business political force in nearly 80 years
of Argentine history that is ready to assume power." Macri
said that his foundation, Fundacion Creer y Crecer (Belief
and Growth Foundation), is working with the German Konrad
Adenhauer Foundation and the U.S. International Republican
Institute in a leadership development program. Nicolas
Caputo said that many in the Foundation were getting
restless, noting that the short-term focus of Argentine
politics made it difficult to convince the Foundation staff
to work for the long-term when Macri's plans for 2007 were
still undefined. 5. (C) Macri said his plans for 2007 were still undecided, and although he did not rule out an eventual alliance with
former Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna, he felt that he and
Lavagna had little in common. Macri said he would not define
his electoral plans until at least the end of the year,
noting that Kirchner himself has not yet announced his BUENOS AIR 00002215 002 OF 002 candidacy. Macri said that his supporters are sharply divided between those who want him to compete again to be
Mayor of Buenos Aires and those who want him to run for
President. Macri said that both options presented risks.
Macri would face a difficult race in the city against
potential Kirchner candidates like Vice President Daniel
Scioli and current Mayor Jorge Telerman. Macri would almost
certainly lose a presidential race to Kirchner, but a good
second place showing, Macri argued, could provide a political
base for the future. Asked about an alliance with Lavagna,
Macri quoted his PRO ally Ricardo Lopez Murphy, "Lavagna is a
better mannered, more tolerant Kirchner. I do not see much
difference between him and Kirchner. Moreover, I do not
think we have much in common with those that are around
Lavagna, like (former Presidents) Alfonsin and Duhalde."
However, he said that he did not discard the possibility of
an eventual accord between him and Lavagna. Asked about
Lopez Murphy, Macri said his alliance with him was strong,
but noted that Lopez Murphy can sometimes be "rigid" in his
thinking, which made discussions on potential political
alliances difficult. 6. (C) COMMENT: Mauricio Macri is currently the leading center-right opposition leader in Argentina. He is one of
the only opposition leaders who can compete toe-to-toe with
Kirchner's potential candidates in a key electoral district,
or make a potentially strong second place showing in a
presidential contest with Kirchner himself. Macri is young
enough and has sufficient personal resources to enable him to
compete for the long term. As 2007 is likely to be a
difficult year for the opposition in Argentina, opposition
leaders will need to have this type of long-term vision to
build for the future. END COMMENT.


MATERA



Source: Wikileaks