LEBANON: UNSCOL OPTIMISTIC ISRAEL WILL WITHDRAW FROM GHAJAR BEFORE ELECTIONS

Reference ID 09BEIRUT177
Date 2009-02-13 05:56
Released 2010-12-01 19:07
Classification SECRET//NOFORN
Origin Embassy Beirut



VZCZCXRO1995
PP RUEHAG RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHROV
DE RUEHLB #0177/01 0441756
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 131756Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4215
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 3464
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 3668
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC




S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIRUT 000177

SIPDIS
NOFORN

DEPT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/ELA
ALSO FOR IO/PDAS WARLICK
P FOR DRUSSELL AND RRANGASWAMY
USUN FOR WOLFF/GERMAIN/SCHEDLBAUER
NSC FOR MCDERMOTT, SHAPIRO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2019
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINR, UNSC, MARR, MOPS, LE, SY, IS
SUBJECT: LEBANON: UNSCOL OPTIMISTIC ISRAEL WILL WITHDRAW
FROM GHAJAR BEFORE ELECTIONS

REF: BEIRUT 101

Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
-------

1. (C) UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon (UNSCOL) Michael
Williams returned from consultations in Israel pleased with
the thorough discussions he had, he told the Ambassador
February 10. Williams was hopeful Israel would withdraw from
Ghajar prior to the Lebanese parliamentary elections on June
7. In another positive step forward, Williams said Israel's
Ministry of Defense had informed him that the "technical
work" required to compile cluster bomb strike data from the
July 2006 war was complete. However, he was advised that the
release of the data to Lebanon required a political decision.

2. (S/NF) Williams assessed that indirect talks would
continue between Israel and Syria, although a new
intermediary likely would be used instead of Turkey. He also
noted a slight change in Israeli thinking to attempt to
include Lebanon in broader talks to secure the whole of its
northern border. On the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, UNSCOL
staff confirmed that the Tribunal would begin March 1, as
scheduled. However, if defendants were transferred to The
Hague before judicial procedure was agreed, the defendants
would exist in a sort of "legal vacuum."

3. (C) Also briefing on his recent trip to Europe, Williams
said European support for Israeli withdrawal from Ghajar was
still high, although on Sheba'a Farms his interlocutors were
more distant. He was concerned about continued European
support for the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL)
beginning in 2010 due to other competing demands. End
summary.

OPTIMISTIC ISRAEL
WILL WITHDRAW FROM GHAJAR
-------------------------

4. (C) UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon (UNSCOL) Michael
Williams, UNSCOL Chief of Staff Jack Christofides, and UNSCOL
Poloff Rami Shehadeh told Ambassador and Poloff February 10
that Israel was taking the issue of Ghajar more seriously
than they had expected, given the February 10 Israeli
elections. UNSCOL completed his most recent consultations in
Israel February 8-9 and said he was pleased with the
thoroughness of the discussion.

5. (C) During his February 8 meeting with Israeli Director
General of Foreign Affairs Aaron Abramovitz and his team of
legal and military advisors, Williams and UN Interim Force in
Lebanon (UNIFIL) Commander General Claudio Graziano learned
that Israel planned to take two steps on Ghajar. First,
Israel had scheduled a team of technical experts to visit
Ghajar on February 11 to make assessments of services
provided to residents, including emergency services,
electricity, telecommunications, and education services.
Second, Israel planned to have the technical team meet with a
UNIFIL technical team one week later to discuss its
assessments. Williams was optimistic that Israel would
withdraw from Ghajar, hopefully before Lebanese parliamentary
elections on June 7, even if UNSCOL needed to increase
pressure on Israel to do so, he said. Williams said he told
his Israeli interlocutors that withdrawing from Ghajar was a
"confidence-building measure" that would support Lebanese
moderates.

6. (C) Williams also confirmed that the Tripartite meetings
between Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), the Lebanese Armed
Forces (LAF) and UNIFIL were being conducted regularly, with
all three parties at the table. He hesitated to call the
meetings "direct negotiations," fearing that was too strong a
characterization. If Israel does withdraw from Ghajar, the
IDF and the LAF would still require the assistance of UNIFIL,
he said. Israel, he claimed, hoped for a more expansive

BEIRUT 00000177 002 OF 003

dialogue with Lebanon. However, Williams believed that this
would be "extraordinarily difficult" after the
December/January Gaza crisis.

ISRAELI MOD SAYS
STRIKE DATA READY FOR RELEASE
-----------------------------

7. (C) On February 9, Williams (without Gen. Graziano) held
meetings with representatives of Israeli Prime Minister
Olmert, Abramovitz's staff, Ministry of Defense (MOD)
Generals Baidatz (Chief of Military Intelligence), General
Heymann (Head of Operations) and General Amos Gilad in
preparation for the next UNSCR 1701 report that will cover
mid-November to mid-February, he said. Williams said General
Heymann informed him that the Israeli MOD had completed its
"technical work" to compile cluster munitions strike data,
but an Israeli political decision was required before it
could be released. This information was new and would be
noted in the forthcoming report, Williams said. Also in the
report, he planned to note the increase in Israeli
overflights of Lebanon, which averaged 20 or more per day
since the start of the Gaza crisis.

8. (C) Williams and his UNSCOL colleagues assessed that
Israel handled carefully the release of crew and passengers
aboard the MV Tali, the "Brotherhood" ship that attempted to
break the Israeli blockade and deliver humanitarian goods to
Gaza February 5. However, they worried that the Israeli
government would not be as "lenient" in the future should
similar incidents occur, based on the statements of their
Israeli interlocutors. Williams feared continued such
incidents could spark provocation in Lebanon. He also noted
Israel's message to the GOL that Israel would take
retaliatory measures in Lebanon if Hizballah took any action,
anywhere in the world to commemorate the death of Imad
Mughniyeh.

ISRAEL-SYRIA TALKS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE
------------------

9. (C) Williams believed that even if Benjamin Netanyahu won
the Israeli elections, Israel would be compelled to return to
indirect talks with Syria "out of necessity," if it hoped to
attempt to address its issues with Iran. However, Williams
said Israeli PM representative Terjemon was fairly definitive
that the talks would not be carried out with Turkey as the
intermediary. Israel, he reported, was "as annoyed with the
Turks, as the Turks are with the Israelis." General Gilad
told Williams that Israel also preferred Lebanon take part in
the talks as part of Israel's strategy to secure the whole of
its northern border. Williams noted that this view presented
a slight change in Israel's approach.

UNSCOL ON SPECIAL TRIBUNAL
--------------------------

10. (S/NF) The first order of business for the Special
Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) after March 1 is for the judges to
establish rules of procedure, Christofides reported. (Note:
On January 23, Lebanese Justice Minister Ibrahim Najjar told
Ambassador that the judges would address the procedural
issues in The Hague March 9-20 -- reftel. End note.)
However, if the four generals or other defendants were
transferred to The Hague during this period before procedures
are set, a "legal vacuum" exists for how to handle the
transfer, Christofides continued.

11. (C) Williams reported that STL Registrar Robin Vincent
was currently in Beirut to iron out logistical issues and to
search for office space for the Beirut STL office that would
remain once the STL was launched in The Hague on March 1.
There would not be any ceremony in Beirut to mark the start
of the Tribunal, Williams confirmed. (Note: The March 14
coalition has begun its campaign to urge support for the
Tribunal. Posters and billboards have started to appear on
the streets of Beirut and its surrounding suburbs. End note.)

BEIRUT 00000177 003 OF 003

EUROPEAN SUPPORT FOR UNIFIL
---------------------------

12. (C) In late January, Williams also visited European
capitals to lobby for continued support for UNIFIL, he said.
He said he had had productive meetings with Italian FM Franco
Frattini, Spanish FM Miguel Moratinos, and spoke by phone
with Jean-David Levitte, advisor to French President Sarkozy.
All three countries, he said, remained supportive of
resolving Ghajar, but were more distant about Sheba'a Farms.
Moratinos suggested that a delegation, including Spain,
France and Italy, might visit Lebanon and Syria in the coming
months. However, Williams remained concerned about competing
for European personnel support for UNIFIL beginning in 2010
in the midst of other demands, especially budgetary and other
defense needs, such as increased troop deployments to
Afghanistan.

COMMENT
-------

13. (C) UNSCOL's assessment of Israeli commitment to withdraw
from Ghajar was more positive than we expected given the
timing of his visit. Our Lebanese interlocutors likely will
remain skeptical of Israeli intention until more concrete
actions are taken -- not just the assessments conducted by
technical teams. However, if Israel indeed decides to
release the newly compiled strike data to Lebanon, as
described to Williams, we assess this could build greater
confidence. End comment.

SISON


Source: Wikileaks